The question of “how to view the price trend of polyester filament in 2026” is, at its core, a question about industry cycles. After years of rapid capacity expansion leading to competitive pricing pressure, the polyester filament industry is now showing clear signs of a structural shift. Leading financial institutions like Guojin Securities and Kaiyuan Securities widely agree that as the industry’s expansion cycle concludes, and with steady demand growth, the supply-demand dynamics for polyester filament in 2025-2026 are expected to remain tight, potentially driving prices into an upward cycle. This article will delve into the three core logics behind this judgment—supply, demand, and industry structure—while also examining the significant uncertainties and short-term pressures that temper the outlook.
I. Supply-Side Constraints: The End of Expansion and Intensifying Concentration
The most fundamental change supporting the long-term price trend is the profound shift on the supply side, marking a departure from the industry’s previous “involutionary” growth model.
- Conclusion of the High-Speed Expansion Cycle: The era of massive capacity increases is definitively over. Data shows that from 2014 to 2023, China’s polyester filament capacity grew from 21.03 million tons to 41.28 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate as high as 7.78%. However, this momentum has sharply decelerated. New capacity in 2024 was only 970,000 tons, bringing the year-on-year growth rate down to 2.35%. Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, new planned capacity is limited and will be primarily concentrated among a couple of leading companies, with the release pace being orderly and controlled. This indicates that the supply pressure from new capacity will significantly diminish.
- Accelerating Industry Concentration and Strengthened Pricing Power: The slowdown in expansion is accompanied by a continuous increase in industry concentration, fundamentally improving the competitive landscape. Industry leaders like Tongkun Group and Xin Fengming have seen their combined market share rise from 21% in 2017 to over 40% currently. The CR6 (the combined market share of the top six companies) has also increased from approximately 85% in 2023 to 87% in 2024. This high degree of concentration grants leading companies significantly stronger control over production scheduling and pricing. More importantly, they have begun more flexible and pragmatic industry self-regulation, moving away from vicious price competition to protect profit margins, making them the “pioneers against involution” in the chemical sector. This shift in industry conduct provides a crucial foundation for the stability and potential increase in product prices.
II. Demand-Side Resilience: Steady Growth Backed by Domestic Sales and Export Recovery
While supply is tightening, demand shows resilience across various fronts, jointly supporting long-term consumption growth.
- Steady Domestic Demand and Industrial Upgrading: Domestic consumption serves as a stable anchor. From January to June 2025, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 3.10% year-on-year, driving a 5.37% year-on-year growth in the apparent consumption of polyester filament. Beneath the surface of steady retail figures, the industry’s internal drive for high-end, intelligent, and green transformation is strengthening. In 2024, fixed asset investment in the textile and apparel manufacturing industry grew by 18.0%, indicating that industrial upgrades will foster demand for higher-quality products.
- Significant Direct Export Growth and Positive Signals from Terminal Inventory Cycles: The export segment has become a bright spot in demand. In the first half of 2025, direct exports of polyester filament reached 1.7652 million tons, surging by 14.18% year-on-year. More optimistically, the inventory cycle in major overseas consumer markets is showing positive signals. After a year-long destocking cycle in 2024, inventory levels for U.S. apparel and fabric wholesalers have essentially returned to normal. Since April 2024, monthly sales at U.S. clothing and accessory stores have maintained positive growth. The combination of low inventory and healthy consumption is highly likely to trigger a new round of restocking, which will further drive demand for upstream raw materials like polyester filament.
- Diversified Export Markets Mitigating Single-Market Risks: While geopolitical and trade policy factors (such as India’s BIS certification and U.S. tariff policies) have impacted certain markets, the industry is actively diversifying. Exports to RCEP member countries are growing significantly, with strong demand from Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam partially offsetting pressures from other markets. This market diversification enhances the overall resilience of export demand.
III. The Core Judgment: Tightening Supply-Demand Gap Supports Upward Price Movement
The combined effects of constrained supply growth and resilient demand expansion are quantitatively projected to result in a tightening supply-demand balance. According to Guojin Securities’ calculations, the supply-demand gap for domestic polyester filament in 2025-2026 is expected to be 880,000 tons and 1.89 million tons, accounting for 2% and 4% of the total domestic supply for the respective years. A supply-demand gap (where demand exceeds supply) typically acts as the most direct and powerful driver for price increases. This projected structural tightness is the core logic behind the market consensus that “polyester filament prices are expected to enter an upward cycle”.
IV. Short-Term Volatility and Key Uncertainties: The Road is Not Entirely Smooth
Despite the clear long-term upward trend, the path will not be without volatility. Several factors will cause significant fluctuations in prices throughout 2026.
- Transmission Failure of Upstream Cost Pressures: Polyester filament prices are closely linked to raw materials like PTA and ethylene glycol. When upstream costs fall but sluggish downstream demand prevents filament producers from effectively passing these reductions on to customers, corporate profit margins are squeezed. This “cost transmission failure” is a primary source of operational pressure and price instability in the short term.
- Weakness in Short-Term Terminal Consumption and High Inventory: Persistent weakness in terminal consumption is the industry’s main current challenge. High inventory levels among weaving factories and a reluctance to actively restock have formed a “negative feedback loop” in the market: price declines fuel wait-and-see attitudes, which in turn weaken demand. Breaking this cycle depends on a genuine recovery in end-consumer spending.
- External Geopolitical and Trade Policy Risks: Changes in the external environment represent the greatest uncertainty. Aggressive tariff policies from major economies directly weaken the price competitiveness of Chinese products and may accelerate global supply chain restructuring. This poses a persistent challenge to export stability. While the destocking cycle in the U.S. offers potential opportunity, the timing and strength of the restocking process will be influenced by the broader macroeconomic and policy environment.
Conclusion: A Transition from a “Volume Expansion” to a “Profit Repair” Cycle
In summary, viewing the price trend of polyester filament in 2026 requires a dual perspective that balances long-term structural optimism with short-term cyclical caution.
On one hand, the long-term logic is robust. The industry is undergoing a profound transformation, shifting from a period of “volume expansion” and homogeneous competition to a new stage of “profit repair” with an optimized structure. The conclusion of the capacity expansion cycle, the record-high industry concentration, the steady growth of domestic demand, and the approaching overseas restocking cycle all form a solid foundation supporting the upward movement of filament prices over the next one to two years.
On the other hand, the short-term market will continue to be tested by the pressures of weak terminal consumption, high intermediate inventory, and the failure of cost transmission. The timing of the industry’s transition from a cyclical bottom to a comprehensive upward trajectory depends on the recovery of end-user consumption and a substantial improvement in downstream confidence.
Therefore, 2026 is likely to be a year where these long and short-term factors intertwine. Prices may experience fluctuations within an upward trend. Investors and industry participants should closely monitor key indicators such as downstream weaving operating rates, port inventory levels of raw materials, and changes in the export order environment to better navigate the market’s turning point.
